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The Conservative Threat Level (CTL)

Since 2000, the Perrspectives Department of Homeland Sanity (DHS) has maintained the Conservative Threat Advisory System. The Conservative Threat Level (CTL) measures the risk posed by the GOP and the forces of reaction to national unity, civil liberties, and equal opportunity.

Current Conservative Threat Level
The Conservative Threat Advisory System
The History of the CTL
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Current Conservative Threat Level

Updated June 20, 2008
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
Obama enjoys post-primary bump as moribund President Bush and GOP brand dim Republican hopes for November. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

The Conservative Threat Advisory System

	Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

	High: Church and State to Merge

	Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

	Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway

	Low: Justice and Reason Still Prevail

The History of the CTL

		Updated June 20, 2008 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Despite record low approval ratings for Bush and direction of the country, unending Democratic presidential race keeps John McCain and the GOP alive. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated April 28, 2008 High: Church and State to Merge Despite record low approval ratings for Bush and direction of the country, unending Democratic presidential race keeps John McCain and the GOP alive. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated February 3, 2008 High: Church and State to Merge Democrats attract record turnout in primaries while GOP faces unease over likely nominee John McCain. Meanwhile, final Bush budget and State of the Union greeted with a yawn by both Congress and the American people. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

		Updated December 20, 2007 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely Despite dismal polls, Iran NIE black eye and CIA tapes scandal, Bush and allies maul Democrats in Congress on Iraq war funding, energy bill and FISA. GOP strategy of obstructionism wildly successful, despite past "up or down vote" talking point. Meanwhile, theocrat Huckabee leads '08 GOP race. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated October 15, 2007 High: Church and State to Merge Secret torture memos, pre-9/11 NSA domestic surveillance and more demagoguery on FISA show Bush and GOP haven't lost the touch, while Republicans in Congress hold on despite Larry Craig's wide stance. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated September 3, 2007 High: Church and State to Merge FISA win and looming Iraq surge showdown confirm Bush still dangerous despite the departures of Rove, Gonzales and Snow. Quick purge of Larry Craig by GOP leadership helped stem the damage from recurring Republican boy trouble. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated September 3, 2007 High: Church and State to Merge FISA win and looming Iraq surge showdown confirm Bush still dangerous despite the departures of Rove, Gonzales and Snow. Quick purge of Larry Craig by GOP leadership helped stem the damage from recurring Republican boy trouble. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated June 30, 2007 High: Church and State to Merge Despite Bush polls in the 20's, right-wing threat skyrockets. UK terror attack fallout, Cheney's fourth branch and wave of SCOTUS wins breath new life into moribund conservative movement. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated May 10, 2007 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Bush digs in his heels despite 28% poll ratings, signs of GOP rebellion over his Iraq fiasco and ever-expanding GonzoGate . But like a trapped rat, he remains dangerous. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated April 2, 2007 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk GonzoGate and Iraq debate only deepen Bush's bunker mentality. Kamikaze strategy on Iraq war funding and Rove/Miers' testimony suggests White House fight to the finish. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated March 8, 2007 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Libby conviction, Walter Reed outrage and prosecutor firings put Bush's back against the wall. Then again, there's nothing more dangerous than a trapped rat. Threat level raised from Blue/Guarded (Upward Income Redistribution Underway).

		Updated January 23, 2007 Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway With poll numbers now in the high 20's and GOP rebellion over his Iraq "surge" plan, 2007 State of the Union officially marks the last throes of the Bush presidency. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated November 9, 2006 Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway Iraq, GOP corruption and FoleyGate sweep away Republican majority in Congress and drop Bush approval to low 30's. For the first time since spring 2004, the threat level is lowered to Blue/Guarded from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated October 31, 2006 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Foleygate fall-out, Iraq chaos and dismal Dubya polls put GOP control of the House and possibly even the Senate at risk. Only the demise of habeas corpus and prospect of waterboarding opponents bring smiles to GOP faces. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated October 3, 2006 High: Church and State to Merge Woodward book and Foley's predilection for post-pubescent pages sends Bush and Republicans into free fall. Thanks to Hastert, GOP may now stand for "Guardians of Pedophiles." Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

		Updated August 11, 2006 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely Despite Bush poll numbers in low 30's, GOP platform of "nothing to run on but fear itself" gets boost with UK airliner plot. Cheney on message with "if Lieberman loses, Al Qaeda wins." Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated July 23, 2006 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Supposed Bush bounce short-lived with war in Lebanon, carnage in Iraq and fiasco at G8 Summit. Dubya's dismal polls not helped by first-ever veto and NAACP appearance. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated June 19, 2006 High: Church and State to Merge With Zarqawi dead, Baghdad photo-op and Rove in the clear, Bush has most fun since taunting a man in a wheelchair. W approval ratings jump from catatonic to moribund. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated May 28, 2006 High: Church and State to Merge While the poll numbers otherwise tumble, illegally spying on Americans looks like a winner for Dubya and the Republicans. Meanwhile, GOP 2006 mid-term strategy of "fags, flags and fetuses" promises to boost turnout on the right. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated April 2, 2006 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Dismal polls numbers show Bush and GOP in Congress now slightly more popular than avian flu among American voters. Even with looming staff shake-ups, Dubya, liked a trapped rat, is still dangerous. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated February 21, 2006 High: Church and State to Merge UAE port debacle, Cheney friendly-fire episode, Abramoff photos, growing NSA spying scandal and dismal SOTU keep Bush on the defensive. Still, Dubya's approval ratings, like his IQ and one-time blood alcohol content, hold steady around 40. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated January 7, 2006 High: Church and State to Merge Abramoff guilty plea and NSA spying scandal take a toll on Republican prospects. Polls keep Dubya in low 40's while giving Democrats a clear lead over ethically-challenged GOP on Capitol Hill. Abramoff, it turns out, is the gift that keeps on giving. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

		Updated December 23, 2005 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely Domestic spying scandal shows that Bush is in fact Nixon's heir. Rising poll numbers and claims of unlimited war powers would make Tricky Dick proud. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated November 22, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge White House jihad against opponents shows there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded Dubya. Dismal poll numbers no barrier to the pot Dick Cheney calling the kettle corrupt, dishonest and reprehensible . Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated November 6, 2005 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Bush's downward spiral continues unabated. Libby indictment, looming Rove departure, and unraveling of dubious Iraq intel drive Dubya's numbers into the 30's. Only likely SCOTUS confirmation of Alito offers hope for retrograde conservative agenda. Threat level remains Elevated.

		Updated October 11, 2005 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Storm clouds continue to gather for Bush. Rove, Delay, Frist and other Banana Republican scandals fester while Miers nomination leads to open revolt on the right. Dubya now only slightly more popular than avian flu. Threat level remains Elevated.

		Updated September 9, 2005 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk It's getting ugly for Bush and his amen corner. The President's post-vacation detachment on the the Katrina disaster, polls in the 30's, the coming PlameGate announcements, and Delay's ethics woes all have the GOP in hot water. Only Rehnquist's timely death offers W hope for his retrograde agenda. Threat level lowered from High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated August 7, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge Energy bill and CAFTA wins can't offset dismal polls numbers for Bush. Record low approval ratings around 40 now match his record high blood alcohol levels of the mid 1980's. With Bill Frist seeking new life from stem cells, only Roberts SCOTUS ascent and Rehnquist decline making GOP happy these days. Threat level lowered from Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

		Updated July 13, 2005 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely Supreme Court opening(s) finally give Bush a chance to roll back the clock to the happier days of the Spanish Inquisition. Rove scandal, failure of Iraq speech and awful polls can't offset SCOTUS and London bombing upside for the luckiest man ever. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated June 7, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge Latest poll numbers show Bush slightly more popular than Warburg virus, but 24/7 coverage of Jacko trial and missing white women keeps Iraq, Social Security, and North Korea out of the news. New Bush mantra: nothing succeeds like failure. Threat level remains at High.

		Updated May 15, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge Dismal polls, North Korean crisis and Iranian nukes can't slow momentum of Bush theocracy. While W attacks FDR in Latvia, Frist prepares to go nuclear, Kansas goes biblical and Bolton promises to get medieval. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated April 9, 2005 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk GOP staggering after Schiavo blowback, judicial threats and looming Delay ethics implosion. Plummeting polls show Bush now slightly more popular than bird flu; GOP leadership slightly less. Even Arnold getting bitch-slapped by public opinion. Threat level lowered from High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated March 20, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge Good news in the Middle East helps Bush hold steady despite plummeting approval polls and implosion of his Social Security shell game. Arafat's timely death, bungling Syrian assassins, Yushchenko's poisoned soup, and Sistani's role in Iraq show once again, it's better to be lucky than good. Threat level remains at High.

		Updated February 17, 2005 High: Church and State to Merge Bush stumbles on Social Security plan and Gannon scandal tarnish W's aura of invincibility. But his born-again democratic idealism evident in the Second Inaugural and State of the Union should remind all that freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose. Threat level lowered from Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

		Updated December 13, 2004 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely The Bush second term assault on the American social contract is now underway. Regressive taxes, the Social Security shell game, new abortion curbs, a cabinet of sycophants, dangerous deficits and an anemic dollar show the GOP indeed wants to turn back the clock to the Middle Ages. Hopefully, Democrats can at least hold them to the Age of Voltaire.

		Updated November 2, 2004 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely Confounding the polls and pundits, a once promising election night turned disastrous for the Democrats. W's surprising popular vote margin and the expanded GOP stranglehold in Congress ensure that the courts, the economy and the culture will be unrecognizable in four years. Ask not what you can do for your country, but who's your daddy. The answer - George W. Bush. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated October 2, 2004 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk John Kerry's demolition of an unusually agitated though typically incoherent W in the Miami debate wiped out the President's lead in the polls. It probably also temporarily wiped that pathologically smug smirk off his face. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely)..

		Updated September 6, 2004 Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely GOP Convention/Hate Fest in New York gives W his biggest high since he stopped doing coke. 11% leads for Bush in Time and Newsweek polls make Zell Miller W's best southern friend since Jack Daniels. Threat level raised from Orange/Elevated (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated August 28, 2004 High: Church and State to Merge Despite public's utter disdain for his policies, chaos in Iraq and lingering "where were you in '72?" issue, Bush moves back into the lead. Kudos to former Nixon hatchet man John O' Neill and the swift boat hacks for giving us 2004's Willie Horton. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated July 31, 2004 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Kerry DNC speech, post-convention bounce and 9/11 panel pressure put Bush on the defensive. Record budget deficit and slowed Q2 GDP growth didn't help W, either. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated July 13, 2004 High: Church and State to Merge Bush takes a licking but keeps on ticking. Saddam-Al Qaeda links trashed, WMD war rationale discarded, Edwards VP choice well received and Cheney slightly more popular than ebola virus. Yet W stays competitive. Threat level unchanged.

		Updated June 8, 2004 High: Church and State to Merge Bush on the right side of history, for once. Reagan nostalgia, papal visit, D-Day anniversary, new Iraqi govt and UN progress get W off life support. Looks like Reagan is saving the GOP - again. Threat level raised from Blue/Guarded (Upward Income Redistribution Underway).

		Updated May 26, 2004 Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway Abu Garaib abuse scandal, growing Iraqi quagmire, GOP rebellion in the Senate all have W singing the blues. War College rehash lands with a thud. Threat level lowered from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

		Updated March 25, 2004 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk Medicare budget fraud, 9/11 hearings, and Richard Clarke book seriously cripple the dubious credibility of "war president" George Bush. Vicious attacks by Cheney, Rice et al no match for the PR impact of Clarke apology to 9/11 families. Threat level lowered from Orange (Church and State to Merge).

		Updated February 25, 2004 High: Church and State to Merge Holy convergence week for Bush, GOP and religious right. W calls for same-sex marriage ban in Constitution, Mel Gibson's Christ flick debuts, and House passes UVVA. Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee calls God asking for support, contributions for President Bush. Threat level raised from Yellow (Bill of Rights and Risk).

		Updated January 28, 2004 Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk President Bush flop at the State of the Union, John Kerry primary wins, and the David Kay WMD flap give hope to Democrats for November 2004.

		Updated December 9, 2003 High: Church and State to Merge Capture of Saddam, improving economy mean Bush reelection, likely merging of church and state.

Updated July 15, 2003
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
Mounting casualties in Iraq, Halliburton hijinx, and unemployment topping 6% leads to Bush approval ratings swoon.

Updated May 1, 2003
Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely
Conquest of Baghdad, Bush flight suit and crotch augmentation on USS Abraham Lincoln ensure one party state. Return to Middle Ages likely.

Updated March 18, 2003
High: Church and State to Merge
Onset of Iraqi war leads to rallying around the flag, bellicose if inarticulate president.

Updated February 1, 2003
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
French, German opposition to Iraq war undermines NATO alliance. Overcome only by Colin Powell's Oscar-worthy performance at the UN Security Council.

Updated November 7, 2002
High: Church and State to Merge
Democratic catastrophe during mid-term elections. GOP control of courts, basic bodily functions likely.

Updated August 1, 2002
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
Lack of Medicare prescription benefit, slow economy hurts the president.

September 11, 2001
Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely
Bush's moribund presidency is saved by national emergency. Country rallies around the president, despite opposition to his entire domestic program.

Updated January 20, 2001
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
George W. Bush inaugurated, Texans overwhelm Washington.

Updated December 12, 2000
Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway
Supreme Court elects W president in Bush v. Gore. Foundations of the republic tremble.

November 6, 2000
Low: Justice and Reason Still Prevail
One day before the election, Bill Clinton still president.

Today's Mantra

"I know how to win wars."

John McCain, on Afghanistan and Iraq, July 15, 2008.

Bill of Rights at Risk

Obama enjoys post-primary bump as moribund President Bush and GOP brand dim Republican hopes for November. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

The Avenging Angel

Stephen Payne, the high-profile Bush "Pioneer" and Homeland Security adviser, was exposed in a bribery scheme this week.

Payne was caught on tape asking for six-figure donations to the Bush Library in exchange for access to the President and his team. While he said his deal-making could be "perceived to be bribery," DHS and a House committee seemed to agree and are looking into the matter.

The episode, the Angel sighs, promises to be just another major Payne for the Bush legacy.