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Conservative Threat Level

April 10, 2020

Since 2000, the Perrspectives Department of Homeland Sanity (DHS) has maintained the Conservative Threat Advisory System. The Conservative Threat Level (CTL) measures the risk posed by the GOP and the forces of reaction to national unity, civil liberties, and equal opportunity.

Current Conservative Threat Level

Low

Updated January 20, 2009

Low: Justice and Reason Prevail

Obama's historic inauguration and overwhelming popularity keep Republicans on their heels. Still, economic recovery package gives GOP in Congress chance to resume record-breaking obstructionism. Threat level lowered from Guarded (Upward Income Redistribution Underway).

 

The Conservative Threat Advisory System

Severe
Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely
High
High: Church and State to Merge
elevated
Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk
guarded
Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway
Low
Low: Justice and Reason Still Prevail

 

The History of the CTL

Low

Updated January 20, 2009

Low: Justice and Reason Prevail

Obama's historic inauguration and overwhelming popularity keep Republicans on their heels. Still, economic recovery package gives GOP in Congress chance to resume record-breaking obstructionism. Threat level lowered from Guarded (Upward Income Redistribution Underway).

guarded

Updated November 5, 2008

Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway

Obama's overwhelming victory and expanded Democratic majority in Congress put GOP on the defensive. Still, with executive orders and pardon schemes, Bush in his last throes remains dangerous. Threat level lowered from High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated October 6, 2008

High: Church and State to Merge

McCain's struggles with the economic crisis and Sarah Palin's disastrous run-ins with Couric and Gibson help catapult Obama back in front. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated September 15, 2008

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Media fawning over Sarah Palin and barrage of lies and distortions produced by his campaign put John McCain in front in race for the White House. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated August 1, 2008

High: Church and State to Merge

While Republican woes in Congress continue to mount with Stevens indictment, McCain campaign's wave of smears and attack ads erase Barack Obama's July lead in White House race. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated June 20, 2008

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Despite record low approval ratings for Bush and direction of the country, unending Democratic presidential race keeps John McCain and the GOP alive. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated April 28, 2008

High: Church and State to Merge

Despite record low approval ratings for Bush and direction of the country, unending Democratic presidential race keeps John McCain and the GOP alive. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated February 3, 2008

High: Church and State to Merge

Democrats attract record turnout in primaries while GOP faces unease over likely nominee John McCain. Meanwhile, final Bush budget and State of the Union greeted with a yawn by both Congress and the American people. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated December 20, 2007

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Despite dismal polls, Iran NIE black eye and CIA tapes scandal, Bush and allies maul Democrats in Congress on Iraq war funding, energy bill and FISA. GOP strategy of obstructionism wildly successful, despite past "up or down vote" talking point. Meanwhile, theocrat Huckabee leads '08 GOP race. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated October 15, 2007

High: Church and State to Merge

Secret torture memos, pre-9/11 NSA domestic surveillance and more demagoguery on FISA show Bush and GOP haven't lost the touch, while Republicans in Congress hold on despite Larry Craig's wide stance. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated September 3, 2007

High: Church and State to Merge

FISA win and looming Iraq surge showdown confirm Bush still dangerous despite the departures of Rove, Gonzales and Snow. Quick purge of Larry Craig by GOP leadership helped stem the damage from recurring Republican boy trouble. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated September 3, 2007

High: Church and State to Merge

FISA win and looming Iraq surge showdown confirm Bush still dangerous despite the departures of Rove, Gonzales and Snow. Quick purge of Larry Craig by GOP leadership helped stem the damage from recurring Republican boy trouble. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated June 30, 2007

High: Church and State to Merge

Despite Bush polls in the 20's, right-wing threat skyrockets. UK terror attack fallout, Cheney's fourth branch and wave of SCOTUS wins breath new life into moribund conservative movement.

Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated May 10, 2007

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Bush digs in his heels despite 28% poll ratings, signs of GOP rebellion over his Iraq fiasco and ever-expanding GonzoGate . But like a trapped rat, he remains dangerous. Threat level unchanged.

elevated

Updated April 2, 2007

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

GonzoGate and Iraq debate only deepen Bush's bunker mentality. Kamikaze strategy on Iraq war funding and Rove/Miers' testimony suggests White House fight to the finish. Threat level unchanged.

elevated

Updated March 8, 2007

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Libby conviction, Walter Reed outrage and prosecutor firings put Bush's back against the wall. Then again, there's nothing more dangerous than a trapped rat. Threat level raised from Blue/Guarded (Upward Income Redistribution Underway).

guarded

Updated January 23, 2007

Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway

With poll numbers now in the high 20's and GOP rebellion over his Iraq "surge" plan, 2007 State of the Union officially marks the last throes of the Bush presidency. Threat level unchanged.

guarded

Updated November 9, 2006

Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway

Iraq, GOP corruption and FoleyGate sweep away Republican majority in Congress and drop Bush approval to low 30's. For the first time since spring 2004, the threat level is lowered to Blue/Guarded from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated October 31, 2006

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Foleygate fall-out, Iraq chaos and dismal Dubya polls put GOP control of the House and possibly even the Senate at risk. Only the demise of habeas corpus and prospect of waterboarding opponents bring smiles to GOP faces. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated October 3, 2006

High: Church and State to Merge

Woodward book and Foley's predilection for post-pubescent pages sends Bush and Republicans into free fall. Thanks to Hastert, GOP may now stand for "Guardians of Pedophiles." Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated August 11, 2006

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Despite Bush poll numbers in low 30's, GOP platform of "nothing to run on but fear itself" gets boost with UK airliner plot. Cheney on message with "if Lieberman loses, Al Qaeda wins." Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated July 23, 2006

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Supposed Bush bounce short-lived with war in Lebanon, carnage in Iraq and fiasco at G8 Summit. Dubya's dismal polls not helped by first-ever veto and NAACP appearance. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated June 19, 2006

High: Church and State to Merge

With Zarqawi dead, Baghdad photo-op and Rove in the clear, Bush has most fun since taunting a man in a wheelchair. W approval ratings jump from catatonic to moribund. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated May 28, 2006

High: Church and State to Merge

While the poll numbers otherwise tumble, illegally spying on Americans looks like a winner for Dubya and the Republicans. Meanwhile, GOP 2006 mid-term strategy of "fags, flags and fetuses" promises to boost turnout on the right. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated April 2, 2006

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Dismal polls numbers show Bush and GOP in Congress now slightly more popular than avian flu among American voters. Even with looming staff shake-ups, Dubya, liked a trapped rat, is still dangerous. Threat level lowered from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated February 21, 2006

High: Church and State to Merge

UAE port debacle, Cheney friendly-fire episode, Abramoff photos, growing NSA spying scandal and dismal SOTU keep Bush on the defensive. Still, Dubya's approval ratings, like his IQ and one-time blood alcohol content, hold steady around 40. Threat level unchanged.

High

Updated January 7, 2006

High: Church and State to Merge

Abramoff guilty plea and NSA spying scandal take a toll on Republican prospects. Polls keep Dubya in low 40's while giving Democrats a clear lead over ethically-challenged GOP on Capitol Hill. Abramoff, it turns out, is the gift that keeps on giving. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated December 23, 2005

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Domestic spying scandal shows that Bush is in fact Nixon's heir. Rising poll numbers and claims of unlimited war powers would make Tricky Dick proud. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated November 22, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

White House jihad against opponents shows there is nothing more dangerous than a wounded Dubya. Dismal poll numbers no barrier to the pot Dick Cheney calling the kettle corrupt, dishonest and reprehensible . Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated November 6, 2005

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Bush's downward spiral continues unabated. Libby indictment, looming Rove departure, and unraveling of dubious Iraq intel drive Dubya's numbers into the 30's. Only likely SCOTUS confirmation of Alito offers hope for retrograde conservative agenda. Threat level remains Elevated.

elevated

Updated October 11, 2005

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Storm clouds continue to gather for Bush. Rove, Delay, Frist and other Banana Republican scandals fester while Miers nomination leads to open revolt on the right. Dubya now only slightly more popular than avian flu. Threat level remains Elevated.

elevated

Updated September 9, 2005

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

It's getting ugly for Bush and his amen corner. The President's post-vacation detachment on the the Katrina disaster, polls in the 30's, the coming PlameGate announcements, and Delay's ethics woes all have the GOP in hot water. Only Rehnquist's timely death offers W hope for his retrograde agenda. Threat level lowered from High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated August 7, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

Energy bill and CAFTA wins can't offset dismal polls numbers for Bush. Record low approval ratings around 40 now match his record high blood alcohol levels of the mid 1980's. With Bill Frist seeking new life from stem cells, only Roberts SCOTUS ascent and Rehnquist decline making GOP happy these days. Threat level lowered from Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated July 13, 2005

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Supreme Court opening(s) finally give Bush a chance to roll back the clock to the happier days of the Spanish Inquisition. Rove scandal, failure of Iraq speech and awful polls can't offset SCOTUS and London bombing upside for the luckiest man ever. Threat level raised from Orange/High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated June 7, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

Latest poll numbers show Bush slightly more popular than Warburg virus, but 24/7 coverage of Jacko trial and missing white women keeps Iraq, Social Security, and North Korea out of the news. New Bush mantra: nothing succeeds like failure. Threat level remains at High.

High

Updated May 15, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

Dismal polls, North Korean crisis and Iranian nukes can't slow momentum of Bush theocracy. While W attacks FDR in Latvia, Frist prepares to go nuclear, Kansas goes biblical and Bolton promises to get medieval. Threat

level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of

Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated April 9, 2005

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

GOP staggering after Schiavo blowback, judicial threats and looming Delay ethics implosion. Plummeting polls show Bush now slightly more popular than bird flu; GOP leadership slightly less. Even Arnold getting bitch-slapped by public opinion. Threat level lowered from High (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated March 20, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

Good news in the Middle East helps Bush hold steady despite plummeting approval polls and implosion of his Social Security shell game. Arafat's timely death, bungling Syrian assassins, Yushchenko's poisoned soup, and Sistani's role in Iraq show once again, it's better to be lucky than good. Threat level remains at High.

High

Updated February 17, 2005

High: Church and State to Merge

Bush stumbles on Social Security plan and Gannon scandal tarnish W's aura of invincibility. But his born-again democratic idealism evident in the Second Inaugural and State of the Union should remind all that freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose. Threat level lowered from Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely).

Severe

Updated December 13, 2004

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

The Bush second term assault on the American social contract is now underway. Regressive taxes, the Social Security shell game, new abortion curbs, a cabinet of sycophants, dangerous deficits and an anemic dollar show the GOP indeed wants to turn back the clock to the Middle Ages. Hopefully, Democrats can at least hold them to the Age of Voltaire.

Severe

Updated November 2, 2004

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Confounding the polls and pundits, a once promising election night turned disastrous for the Democrats. W's surprising popular vote margin and the expanded GOP stranglehold in Congress ensure that the courts, the economy and the culture will be unrecognizable in four years. Ask not what you can do for your country, but who's your daddy. The answer - George W. Bush. Threat level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated October 2, 2004

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

John Kerry's demolition of an unusually agitated though typically incoherent W in the Miami debate wiped out the President's lead in the polls. It probably also temporarily wiped that pathologically smug smirk off his face. Threat level lowered from Red/Severe (Return to Middle Ages Likely)..

Severe

Updated September 6, 2004

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

GOP Convention/Hate Fest in New York gives W his biggest high since he stopped doing coke. 11% leads for Bush in Time and Newsweek polls make Zell Miller W's best southern friend since Jack Daniels. Threat

level raised from Orange/Elevated (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated August 28, 2004

High: Church and State to Merge

Despite public's utter disdain for his

policies, chaos in Iraq and lingering "where

were you in '72?" issue, Bush moves back

into the lead. Kudos to former Nixon hatchet

man John O' Neill and the swift boat hacks

for giving us 2004's Willie Horton. Threat

level raised from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of

Rights at Risk).

elevated

Updated July 31, 2004

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Kerry DNC speech, post-convention bounce and

9/11 panel pressure put Bush on the

defensive. Record budget deficit and

slowed Q2 GDP growth didn't help W, either. Threat

level lowered from Orange/High (Church and

State to Merge).

High

Updated July 13, 2004

High: Church and State to Merge

Bush takes a licking but keeps on ticking.

Saddam-Al Qaeda links trashed, WMD war

rationale discarded, Edwards VP choice well

received and Cheney slightly more popular

than ebola virus. Yet W stays competitive. Threat

level unchanged.

High

Updated June 8, 2004

High: Church and State to Merge

Bush on the right side of history, for once.

Reagan nostalgia, papal visit, D-Day

anniversary, new Iraqi govt and UN progress

get W off life support. Looks like

Reagan is saving the GOP - again. Threat

level raised from Blue/Guarded (Upward

Income Redistribution Underway).

guarded

Updated May 26, 2004

Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution

Underway

Abu Garaib abuse scandal, growing Iraqi

quagmire, GOP rebellion in the Senate all

have W singing the blues. War College

rehash lands with a thud. Threat level

lowered from Yellow/Elevated (Bill of Rights

at Risk).

elevated

Updated March 25, 2004

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Medicare budget fraud, 9/11 hearings, and

Richard Clarke book seriously cripple the

dubious

credibility of "war

president" George Bush. Vicious

attacks by Cheney, Rice et al no match for the PR impact of

Clarke apology to 9/11 families. Threat level

lowered from

Orange (Church and State to Merge).

High

Updated February 25, 2004

High: Church and State to Merge

Holy convergence week for Bush, GOP and

religious right. W calls for same-sex

marriage ban in Constitution, Mel Gibson's

Christ flick debuts, and House passes

UVVA.

Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee calls God

asking for support, contributions for

President Bush. Threat level raised from

Yellow (Bill of Rights and Risk).

elevated

Updated January 28, 2004

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

President Bush flop at the State of the

Union, John Kerry primary wins, and the

David Kay WMD flap give hope to Democrats

for November 2004.

High

Updated December 9, 2003

High: Church and State to Merge

Capture of Saddam, improving economy mean Bush reelection, likely merging of church and state.

elevated

Updated July 15, 2003

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Mounting casualties in Iraq, Halliburton hijinx, and unemployment topping 6% leads to Bush approval ratings swoon.

Severe

Updated May 1, 2003

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Conquest of Baghdad, Bush flight suit and crotch augmentation on USS Abraham Lincoln ensure one party state. Return to Middle Ages likely.

High

Updated March 18, 2003

High: Church and State to Merge

Onset of Iraqi war leads to rallying around the flag, bellicose if inarticulate president.

elevated

Updated February 1, 2003

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

French, German opposition to Iraq war undermines NATO alliance. Overcome only by Colin Powell's Oscar-worthy performance at the UN Security Council.

High

Updated November 7, 2002

High: Church and State to Merge

Democratic catastrophe during mid-term elections. GOP control of courts, basic bodily functions likely.

elevated

Updated August 1, 2002

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

Lack of Medicare prescription benefit, slow economy hurts the president.

Severe

September 11, 2001

Severe: Return to Middle Ages Likely

Bush's moribund presidency is saved by national emergency. Country rallies around the president, despite opposition to his entire domestic program.

elevated

Updated January 20, 2001

Elevated: Bill of Rights at Risk

George W. Bush inaugurated, Texans overwhelm Washington.

guarded

Updated December 12, 2000

Guarded: Upward Income Redistribution Underway

Supreme Court elects W president in Bush v. Gore. Foundations of the republic tremble.

Low

November 6, 2000

Low: Justice and Reason Still Prevail

One day before the election, Bill Clinton still president.


About

Jon Perr
Jon Perr is a technology marketing consultant and product strategist who writes about American politics and public policy.

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