The latest polls from South Carolina show former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is within striking distance of John McCain in the Palmetto State's GOP primary on Saturday. A win there by Huckabee could upend the conventional wisdom about the fractured yet wide-open Republican race. After Saturday, the GOP contest could be less about picking the Republican presidential nominee then ensuring that Mike Huckabee isn't it.
While Huckabee's cavalcade of gaffes in the past week (amending the Constitution to meet "God's standards", equating homosexuality with bestiality, scatological references in support of the state's Confederate flag) made headlines nationally, in South Carolina they may have served to firm up in his evangelical base. An MSNBC/McClatchy poll released Thursday showed Huckabee trailing McCain by only two points (27% to 25%) in a survey where 62% of respondents identified themselves as evangelicals. A Rasmussen poll puts the candidates even at 24%, while other South Carolina surveys give McCain a lead of up to 8 points.
A loss by the GOP national frontrunner John McCain could signal major difficulties for the Arizona Senator. A repeat of his dismal 2000 performance in South Carolina could brand him as a candidate unable to win Republican contests without independent voters. Worse still, the rapidly deteriorating American economy is moving the issue focus away from his comfort zone on national security. (In early January, an ETV/Winthrop University poll found that immigration topped Republican concerns in South Carolina; just 10 days later the MSNBC/McClatchy survey showed the economy now the most important issue.) Given the thrashing he suffered in Michigan and the off-target stimulus package McCain announced yesterday, the campaign shifting emphasis to the economy stands to benefit businessman Mitt Romney and populist Mike Huckabee.
As uncertainty reigns in the GOP field, the only constant through the February 5th "Tsunami Tuesday" contests could be Mike Huckabee. Fred Thompson will face his Waterloo in South Carolina on Saturday. Rudy Giuliani, who relegated himself to observer status through the GOP contest so far, faces his in Florida on January 29th. While Romney and McCain continue to their battle, Huckabee's proven ability to rally evangelical voters will make him a factor going forward.
All of which terrifies the Republican establishment. As Huckabee moved up in the Iowa polls in December, the National Review's Rich Lowry said "his nomination would represent an act of suicide by his party." Today, Lowry argued ("Huck Hoax: Why He Won't Break Out") that Huckabee can't win the GOP nomination because of his inability to move beyond his evangelical base, a voting block he split with Mitt Romney in Michigan and is now fighting for with Fred Thompson in South Carolina:

Huckabee won Iowa for one reason - he won an overwhelming plurality of evangelical voters in a GOP caucus where they made up an astonishing 60 percent of the electorate...In New Hampshire, where Huckabee finished a distant third, he won 33 percent of evangelicals, but just 7 percent of nonevangelicals - less than Ron Paul. In Michigan, he lost evangelicals to Mitt Romney 34-29, and got just 8 percent of nonevangelicals - again, less than Ron Paul. So among nonevangelicals, Huckabee is as much a fringe candidate as the sometimes bizarre libertarian purist.

But just in case, Republicans aren't going to take any chances. If Mike Huckabee wins in South Carolina on Saturday, the GOP race will be transformed into an Anyone-But-Huckabee competition. Rich Lowry is likely right that the extremist Mike Huckabee isn't going to win his party's nomination. The contest will be on to pick the Huckabee alternative.