With the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina Republican primary now history, it is once again time for the post-mortem. From the blatantly obvious to the possibly outlandish, here are five observations from Saturday's presidential primary action.
1. The Incredible Shrinking Legacy of Bill Clinton
On Friday, I worried that Bill Clinton's descent into attack dog politics in the service of his wife Hillary's campaign threatened to diminish his reputation and popularity among Democrats in particular and Americans in general. As it turns out, I wrote that piece a day too soon. As the Politico noted Saturday, Bill Clinton claimed in Nevada that he personally witnessed voter suppression by the Culinary Workers' union and falsely decried ads supposedly calling on Republicans to caucus for Obama as payback to Hillary. As Newsweek reports, Ted Kennedy, Rahm Emanuel and other leading Democrats are pleading with him to "pipe down."
2. Barack Obama's Hispanic Problem
After Hillary Clinton's stunning comeback victory in New Hampshire, I suggested that Barack Obama may have missed a one-time opportunity to ride a wave of media momentum to the Democratic nomination. His dismal showing among Hispanic voters in Nevada (who backed Clinton by 64% to 26%) may pose another profound challenge for his candidacy. Obama faces an uphill climb throughout the Southwest and especially in Southern California, where the competition over jobs and political power between African-Americans and Hispanics remains tense. Despite the Democrats' huge lead among Hispanic voters nationwide, as the nominee Obama might struggle against John McCain, the only Republican seemingly capable of toning down the GOP's xenophobia on immigration.
3. Fred Thompson's Bad Acid Trip
As the polls predicted, Fred Thompson failed to win his line-in-the sand contest in South Carolina. But what no one could have anticipated was his surreal speech Saturday night, a magical mystery tour that in comparison made John McCain's rambling senior moment in New Hampshire seem like Lincolnesque oratory. After alerting the networks to his pending statement, Thompson didn't drop out, vow to fight on or even acknowledge the winner. A puzzled Keith Olbermann on MSNBC was left to wonder about Thompson's appearance at the podium, asking only, "What was that about?" A bad acid trip seems as good an explanation as any.
4. Huckabee Needs Divine Intervention - Again
On Friday, I went out on a limb and suggested that a Mike Huckbee victory in the South Carolina primary could transform the GOP race into an Anyone-But-Huckabee contest. While Huckabee's grassroots, faith-based support make him a player through the February 5th Tsunami Tuesday primaries, his inability to capitalize on the evangelical rich opportunity in the Palmetto State probably ended his hopes to compete for the nomination. (Sadly, I find myself in agreement with Michelle Malkin and Rich Lowry on this point, a queasy feeling which is a little like finding out you had an uncle in the SS.) As for Huckabee, he can only hope that the same God who was behind his rise in the polls will resurrect him now. As for the rest of us, we can only hope that the GOP reprises its 1992 Pat Buchanan "culture war" debacle and gives Mike Huckabee a prime-time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention.
5. The McMitt Show
Unless Rudy Giuliani pulls a rabbit (or 9/11) from a hat, the GOP race seems destined to a contest between Mitt Romney and John McCain. Giuliani, who lags Ron Paul by over 45,000 votes in the Republican balloting so far, simply must win the too-close-to-call Florida race. Mac may be back, but he still needs to prove he can consistently win GOP primaries without substantial participation by independents. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney needs to stop pretending his cake-walk in uncontested Nevada was the equivalent of Appalachian State beating Michigan. Mitt's endless reservoirs of cash combined with the worsening economy (and aided by McCain's feeble stimulus plan) play to his advantage.