Iowa Aftermath: Immigration the New GOP Wedge Issue in '08
Lost in the media focus on the victories of the supposed "change" candidates in Iowa last night are the dramatic differences in the priorities of each party's voters. As Iowa Democrats headed to their caucuses in record numbers last night, the sputtering American economy topped their list of concerns. But in a disturbing hint of things to come from the GOP, Iowa Republicans instead were looking for someone to blame in making immigration their most important issue.
Americans' concerns over the economy are well-founded. Sales of new homes dropped 9% in November, reaching their lowest level in 12 years. Just days after the price of a barrel of oil reached $100, a dismal jobs report showed unemployment jumped to a two-year high of 5%. As the impact of the credit crisis spreads from the housing market to the broader American economy, the Federal Reserve and even the Bush administration are not so quietly raising the prospect of recession. It's no wonder stock markets are jittery and the Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index remains mired at its lowest level since 2003.
Democrats in Iowa reflected those anxieties. According to the MSNBC entrance polls, Democratic caucus goers saw the economy as their most important issue. While the economy tied Iraq 35% to top Democrats' priorities, health care was just behind at 27%. Thos results mirrored the findings of a CBS/New York Times survey in early December which put Iraq (25%), the economy/jobs (12%) and health care at the top of Americans nationwide. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll the following week showed a similar ranking of Americans' concerns.
Republicans in Iowa, however, had a much different notion of national priorities. Immigration easily tops the list of Hawkeye State Republican anxieties. 33% of GOP caucus participants claimed immigration was their most important issue, followed by the economy (26%), terrorism (21%) and Iraq (17%). (Despite some surveys showing that up to half of Republicans nationally favor universal health care, that issue was not prominent on the radar screens of Iowa's GOP faithful.) While immigration ranks a distant fourth (or lower) for Americans as a whole, for Iowa Republicans it was job 1.
The prominence of immigration for GOP caucus goers should come as no surprise. The state was inundated with ads promising tough new measures against illegal immigration. When Mitt Romney assailed Mike Huckabee's record in Little Rock, the former Arkansas governor responded with a new planned crackdown. While Romney and Giuliani comically clashed over who was the biggest supporter of so-called sanctuary cities, Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo ran TV spots decrying the looming terrorism threat just south of the border. A chastened John McCain backtracked from the immigration reform plan he himself championed in Congress. (In their most blatant step, the Republican candidates skipped the Spanish language Univision debate until growing pressure forced their hands.) And every day on CNN, Lou Dobbs plays up the hysterical xenophobia in his perpetual "Broken Borders" segment.
Polling data from New Hampshire suggest that Granite State Republicans share an immigration fixation (if less pronounced) with their Iowa brethren. A December 3, 2007 Washington Post poll of New Hampshire Republicans similarly found that "immigration/illegal immigration" was their top concern, named most important by 19% of respondents. Only 2% of New Hampshire Democrats ranked immigration most important.
All of which suggests that, intended or not, the GOP is playing a very high stakes game of wedge politics in 2008. Having exhausted stem cell research and same-sex marriage ballot measures to fire up its base in 2004 and 2006, the Party of Hate is whipping up a frenzy over illegal immigration to mobilize the faithful and get them to the polls this year.
But the politics of "Divide, Suppress and Conquer" only works if the opposition refuses (or is denied the right) to vote. And the GOP's xenophobic crusade against immigration - and immigrants - is creating a seismic shift among Hispanic voters. By 2006, Democrats won 69% support among Hispanics who went to the polls, a dramatic improvement over the erosion to only 53% John Kerry had enjoyed in 2004. As the New Democrat Network documented, the Hispanic electorate grew by an astonishing 33% over the last four and plays a critical role in several states (among them Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Florida) George W. Bush carried in 2004. A December 2007 LA Times poll showed the political cross-currents at work in the immigration issue:
One-third of Americans want to deny social services, including public schooling and emergency room healthcare, to illegal immigrants...Still, in a sign of ambivalence among voters about the emotionally charged issue, a strong bipartisan majority -- 60% -- favors allowing illegal immigrants who have not committed crimes to become citizens if they pay fines, learn English and meet other requirements.
As the red flags for the American economy continue to proliferate, the two parties are offering two decidedly different visions for the future. Democratic voters see the economy, jobs and the shaky future of the American Dream as the most pressing issue in this election year and want to do something about it. Republicans, in contrast, appear to want someone to blame. That is a divisive and dangerous game the GOP is playing. Let's hope that in 2008, unlike in 2004, they won't be rewarded for playing it.
Then it was the fault of an "International Jewish Conspiracy".
Now it's supposedly all the fault of these "Ewige" immigrants.
Same old propaganda ploy -- demonize and conquer -- from the current crop of [NeoCon]Nazis.