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Who's on First? In Debates, Hillary Clinton

February 27, 2008

Watching the MSNBC Democratic debate last night, you couldn't help but conclude Hillary Clinton can't win for losing. After a miffed Clinton noted that she has routinely been asked the first question, blogs left and right, not to mention MSNBC's post-debate analysts, lambasted her for it. For what it's worth, she just happens to be right.
Clinton's admittedly feeble effort to seek balance came early in the debate. Coupled as it was with an awkward attempt to leverage a Saturday Night Live parody, to say the tactic fell flat is an understatement. Responding to co-moderator Brian Williams, Clinton said:

"Well, can I just point out that in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time. I don't mind, you know, I'll be happy to field them. But I do find it curious. And if anybody saw 'Saturday Night Live,' maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow."

Hillary Clinton may not be a comedian, but she can do math. As it turns out, in her quixotic quest for debate justice, she's happens to be right. Hillary Clinton not only generally receives the opening question of the evening. In the previous CNN debate, she was asked to respond first about 70% of the time.
This morning, the New York Times provided the numbers:

Mrs. Clinton has received the first question of the night in all three of her one-on-one debates with Mr. Obama - about Cuba, about the North American Free Trade Agreement and about their biggest policy differences.
In other debates before the Democratic field narrowed, she received the first question at 6 of the 10 most recent events.
And in the one-on-one debate last Thursday, she received the first question on the overwhelming majority of topics and thus spoke first about twice as often as he did.

Last Thursday's CNN debate in Austin, Texas shows just how dramatic the disparity had become. A quick pass through the transcript shows that Senator Clinton was asked to respond first on 9 of 13 questions posed. (I'm leaving out follow up questions from the panel of Campbell Brown, John King, and Jorge Ramos.)
The Clinton camp is not without foundation in believing that Obama enjoys the equivalent of a home field advantage in baseball. Given what appears to be the consensus that Hillary Clinton has the edge in debating substantive policy, Obama's "bottom of the inning" position lets him react to - or even appropriate from - Clinton's initial answers. Like overtime in college football, to use another sports analogy, Obama's task simply becomes to match or beat her performance.
Tim Russert's question last night on Russia and Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor Dmitry Medvedev provides a case in point. After a brief silence between the candidates, Hillary Clinton stepped forward to answer the question, providing a concise summary of the dynamic at work in the ever more authoritarian Russia of Vladimir Putin. But Russert, perhaps hoping to reprise George W. Bush's hilarious 1999 stumble when asked to name foreign leaders, tried to set the trap. After she stammered in pronouncing Medvedev's name, Obama rode the coattails of Clinton's answer and one-upped her by recalling President Bush's 2001 description of Putin that he was "able to get a sense of his soul":

RUSSERT: Who will it be? Do you know his name?
CLINTON: Medvedev -- whatever.
RUSSERT: Yes.
CLINTON: Yes.
RUSSERT: Senator Obama, do you know anything about him?
OBAMA: Well, I think Senator Clinton speaks accurately about him. He is somebody who was hand-picked by Putin. Putin has been very clear that he will continue to have the strongest hand in Russia in terms of running the government. And, you know, it looks -- just think back to the beginning of President Bush's administration when he said -- you know, he met with Putin, looked into his eyes and saw his soul, and figured he could do business with him.

Ultimately, of course, Hillary Clinton did herself no favors in making her case last night. But after losing 11 straight primaries to Barack Obama, the order of debate questions seems to be the only time she still comes in first.
UPDATE: Satirical Political has more on the failed Clinton SNL reference here and here.


About

Jon Perr
Jon Perr is a technology marketing consultant and product strategist who writes about American politics and public policy.

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