On Monday, John McCain repackaged his previous economic proposals in a mystifying document simply called "Jobs for America." More notable for what it lacked than what it included, McCain's latest rehash unsurprisingly left out his past admissions of ignorance on matters economic, his vision of eBay as Americans' economic future or his belief that the U.S. recession was merely "psychological." But in returning to a previously abandoned promise to magically balance the budget by the end of his first term, John McCain is depending on a 21st century "peace dividend" and unspecified reforms of entitlement programs. Call it McCain's Immaculate Deception.
The Immaculate Deception starts and ends with McCain's on-again, off-again, on-again pledge to balance the federal budget by 2013. As I noted a month ago, McCain made the first term balanced budget promise during a Wisconsin campaign rally in February. But by mid-April, his campaign was backing off. McCain's chief economic adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin set a new target of 2017 to stem the red ink, feebly proclaiming on April 14th, "I would like the next president not to talk about deficit reduction." McCain, too, backed off his previous promise, telling ABC's George Stephanopolous that 2013 "would be the goal," not a commitment. He was reneging on his short-lived promise, McCain told MSNBC's Chris Matthews on April 15, because "economic conditions are reversed."
Apparently, economic conditions have reversed themselves again. A month after Holtz-Eakin exhumed the 2013 balance budget pledge ("That plan, when appropriately phased in, as it has always been intended to be, will bring the budget to balance by the end of his first term"), McCain formalized it in his plan today:

"John McCain will balance the budget by the end of his first term."

But to accomplish his budgetary sleight of hand, McCain relies not on his three stated principles ("reasonable economic growth", "comprehensive spending controls", and "bi-partisanship in budget efforts"), but a three-part shell game.
First is McCain's resurrection of the ephemeral 1990's "peace dividend." Despite his plans for a 100 year American military presence in Iraq and previous calls for a boost in defense spending, the miraculous conclusion of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will produce a budgetary windfall for the U.S. Treasury:

"The McCain administration would reserve all savings from victory in the Iraq and Afghanistan operations in the fight against Islamic extremists for reducing the deficit. Since all their costs were financed with deficit spending, all their savings must go to deficit reduction."

Like napalm in the morning, to McCain a balanced budget smells like victory.
The second leg of McCain's fantastical budget balancing stool is entitlement reform. It begins with the Social Security privatization that dare not speak its name. Despite McCain's past statements, along with those of advisers such as Carly Fiorina, that he supports privatization, McCain insisted as recently as June 12th that "I never have been" in favor of the shift to private accounts. And yet, the hint of privatization was there again today:

John McCain will fight to save the future of Social Security, and he believes that we may meet our obligations to the retirees of today and the future without raising taxes. John McCain supports supplementing the current Social Security system with personal accounts - but not as a substitute for addressing benefit promises that cannot be kept. John McCain will reach across the aisle to address these challenges, but if the Democrats do not act, he will. No problem is in more need of honesty than the looming financial challenges of entitlement programs. Americans have the right to know the truth and John McCain will not leave office without fixing the problems that threatens our future prosperity and power.

No doubt, addressing the long-term health of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid will require "honesty," but it certainly won't be coming from the McCain campaign. Asked in a conference call today where the savings will come from the nation's entitlement programs, Holtz-Eakin answered cryptically that the supposed maverick can be trusted to work his magic. As the Politico noted:

McCain, noted his adviser, "has a long history of being able to reach across the aisle" to address policy issues.
He'll "solve big problems and provide leadership," Holtz-Eakin said, staying vague.
Don't get what he's talking about?
It's the issue that dare not speak its name during a campaign -- what to do about those entitlements that take up a much larger slice of the federal budget than any earmarks McCain wants to cut.
What Holtz-Eakin was suggesting, of course, is that McCain would work with Democratic leaders in Congress to address the increasingly heavy fiscal load that will come when baby boomers retire and start drawing Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

The third leg of McCain's smoke and mirrors budgetary triad, of course, is his program of massive tax cuts. Along with the magical windfall from "victory" and the TBD entitlement reforms, the McCain tax cuts will drive rapid economic growth and erase this year's $400 billion deficit.
Sadly, as ThinkProgress detailed back in March, the McCain plan to make permanent and expand upon the Bush tax cuts would in fact blow a hole in the U.S. budget for the next decade. Today's promise that "the McCain Administration will reclaim billions of add-on spending from earmarks and add-ons in FY 2007 and 2008" would be a drop in the bucket compared to the fiscal disaster President McCain would create:

Our analysis suggests that the McCain plan shares five key characteristics of Bush policies. First, it is enormously expensive, costing more than $2 trillion over the next decade and essentially doubling the Bush tax cuts. Second, the McCain plan would predominantly benefit the most fortunate taxpayers, offering two new massive tax cuts for corporations and delivering 58 percent of its benefits to the top 1 percent of taxpayers. The Bush tax cuts provide 31 percent of their benefits to the top 1 percent of taxpayers.
Third, the McCain tax plan continues the shift of the tax burden from investment income onto earned income. Fourth, the plan not only fails to address current tax shelter problems in the tax code but in fact will lead to increased sheltering. Fifth, McCain cannot pay for his tax cuts without massive reductions in Social Security, Medicare, or other key programs that benefit the vast majority of Americans.

Years ago, the cartoonist Gary Larson produced a Far Side comic strip showing two scientists pondering over a massive proof that spanned an entire blackboard. Sidney Harris prioduced a similarly themed comic. In the next to last step, the proof read, "Then a Miracle Occurs." That sums up the economic plan John McCain reintroduced today: miraculous though undiscussed savings from entitlement spending combined with billions of dollars no longer needed to fight the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq magically combine to offset the endless sea of red ink produced by the McCain tax cuts.
As he did with his jaw-dropping "2013" speech in May, McCain is again asking Americans to trust him that what he can imagine happening in his future perfect presidency will in fact come to pass.
An immaculate deception, indeed.