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Iraqi Ambassador, Petraeus Report Al Qaeda Moving to Afghanistan

July 23, 2008

To John McCain's dismay, the chorus of voices bolstering Barack Obama's call for a strategic refocus from Iraq to Afganistan just keeps growing. Just one day before Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki indisputably endorsed Obama's time frame for a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, General David Petraeus reported that the diminished Al Qaeda threat there was being weakened still further by the group's movement of foreign fighters to Afghanistan. Now, Samir Sumaida'ie, the Iraqi ambassador to Washington, has joined Petraeus in his assessment.
On Wednesday, Sumaida'ie reported that AQI, battered by the Sunni Awakening, the Sons of Iraq program and the recent joint U.S. Iraqi assault on its last urban bastion in Mosul, is shifting resources to its safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border:

"We have heard reports recently that many of the foreign fighters that were in Iraq have left, either back to their homeland or going to fight in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is now seeming to be more suitable for al-Qaida fighters.
There were large tracts that were run by al-Qaida, administered by al-Qaida - they had ministers, administrators, paid salaries and so on. This no longer exists, so they do not have any territory to control (where it) is safe for them to move in and around Iraq," he said. "In whole areas they ceased to operate as effective terrorist networks."

Sumaida'ie's assessment comes just three days after the American commander in Iraq (and incoming CENTCOM chief) General Petraeus acknowledged Al Qaeda may be considering shifting focus to its original home base in Afghanistan:

"We do think that there is some assessment ongoing as to the continued viability of al-Qaida's fight in Iraq. They're not going to abandon Iraq. They're not going to write it off. None of that. But what they certainly may do is start to provide some of those resources that would have come to Iraq to Pakistan, possibly Afghanistan."

Petraeus' statement is consistent with the priorities articulated by his civilian counterpart, U.S. ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker. In April, Crocker acknowledged to Senator Joe Biden (D-DE) that the Afghan-Pakistan border region was the higher priority for the United States in its fight against Al Qaeda:

AMB. CROCKER: Well given the progress that has been made again Al Qaeda in Iraq, the significant decrease in its capabilities, the fact that it is solidly on the defensive, and not in a position of -
SEN. BIDEN: Which would you pick, Mr. Ambassador?
AMB. CROCKER: I would therefore pick Al Qaeda in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area.

In his press conference Tuesday, Barack Obama voiced his concerns over "the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan," which he deemed "central front in the war against terrorism." Going forward, he argued, the American strategy in the global fight against Al Qaeda must:

"Refocus attention on Afghanistan and to go after the Taliban, including putting more troops on the ground, and to put more pressure on Pakistan to deal with the safe havens of terrorists."

Appearing on PBS Newshour, Joint Chiefs Chairman Michael Mullen concurred with Obama's take that the situation in Afghanistan is "precarious and urgent," but warned again that 10,000 additional troops needed there would not be available "in any significant manner" unless there are withdrawals from Iraq.
With the threat from Al Qaeda in his country markedly reduced, the Iraqi ambassador to the U.S. provided more support to do just that.


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Jon Perr
Jon Perr is a technology marketing consultant and product strategist who writes about American politics and public policy.

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